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Tournament Performance Luck Calculator
( version*)

   This tool calculates how lucky you were (or anybody) in a tournament achieving certain performance, that is, given N opponents and their ELO rating what is the probability that a hero gets at least 0, 1, ..., N points.
Enter below your ELO rating and a list of opponents ELO ratings, then hit the Calculate button.

 Enter player information     

 Enter ELO ratings of opponents 


 Results 
Probability to achieve exactly 0.0 points: 0.001302332208333861, ~1/767
Probability to achieve exactly 0.5 points: 0.008639702432563922, ~1/115
Probability to achieve exactly 1.0 points: 0.041220415436704560, ~1/24
Probability to achieve exactly 1.5 points: 0.103844549486600316, ~1/9
Probability to achieve exactly 2.0 points: 0.194833716820653512, ~1/5
Probability to achieve exactly 2.5 points: 0.228373294635902782, ~1/4
Probability to achieve exactly 3.0 points: 0.199262432519440319, ~1/5
Probability to achieve exactly 3.5 points: 0.126022851026615254, ~1/7
Probability to achieve exactly 4.0 points: 0.062696929870334559, ~1/15
Probability to achieve exactly 4.5 points: 0.024007136454985395, ~1/41
Probability to achieve exactly 5.0 points: 0.007492777992746362, ~1/133
Probability to achieve exactly 5.5 points: 0.001847598705010345, ~1/541
Probability to achieve exactly 6.0 points: 0.000383494510209371, ~1/2607
Probability to achieve exactly 6.5 points: 0.000062912542452402, ~1/15895
Probability to achieve exactly 7.0 points: 0.000008830302317770, ~1/113246
Probability to achieve exactly 7.5 points: 0.000000934877843855, ~1/1069658
Probability to achieve exactly 8.0 points: 0.000000085100104801, ~1/11750866
Probability to achieve exactly 8.5 points: 0.000000004836400944, ~1/206765322
Probability to achieve exactly 9.0 points: 0.000000000240779720, ~1/4153173684
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Probability to achieve >= 0.0 points: 1.000000000000000058, ~1/0
Probability to achieve >= 0.5 points: 0.998697667791666197, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.0 points: 0.990057965359102274, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.5 points: 0.948837549922397714, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.0 points: 0.844993000435797397, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.5 points: 0.650159283615143884, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 3.0 points: 0.421785988979241102, ~1/2
Probability to achieve >= 3.5 points: 0.222523556459800782, ~1/4
Probability to achieve >= 4.0 points: 0.096500705433185528, ~1/10
Probability to achieve >= 4.5 points: 0.033803775562850969, ~1/29
Probability to achieve >= 5.0 points: 0.009796639107865574, ~1/102
Probability to achieve >= 5.5 points: 0.002303861115119212, ~1/434
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.000456262410108866, ~1/2191
Probability to achieve >= 6.5 points: 0.000072767899899495, ~1/13742
Probability to achieve >= 7.0 points: 0.000009855357447092, ~1/101467
Probability to achieve >= 7.5 points: 0.000001025055129321, ~1/975557
Probability to achieve >= 8.0 points: 0.000000090177285466, ~1/11089267
Probability to achieve >= 8.5 points: 0.000000005077180664, ~1/196959703
Probability to achieve >= 9.0 points: 0.000000000240779720, ~1/4153173684

Thanks to brabo for the ideas, the useful and critical discussions and the help to implement this tool.