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Tournament Performance Luck Calculator
( version*)

   This tool calculates how lucky you were (or anybody) in a tournament achieving certain performance, that is, given N opponents and their ELO rating what is the probability that a hero gets at least 0, 1, ..., N points.
Enter below your ELO rating and a list of opponents ELO ratings, then hit the Calculate button.

 Enter player information     

 Enter ELO ratings of opponents 


 Results 
Probability to achieve exactly 0.0 points: 0.000001575047933761, ~1/634901
Probability to achieve exactly 0.5 points: 0.000024119248324621, ~1/41460
Probability to achieve exactly 1.0 points: 0.000186731353188757, ~1/5355
Probability to achieve exactly 1.5 points: 0.000959976342091193, ~1/1041
Probability to achieve exactly 2.0 points: 0.003650915366501745, ~1/273
Probability to achieve exactly 2.5 points: 0.010871107730852396, ~1/91
Probability to achieve exactly 3.0 points: 0.026221682233028131, ~1/38
Probability to achieve exactly 3.5 points: 0.052368152475108087, ~1/19
Probability to achieve exactly 4.0 points: 0.087862191741425992, ~1/11
Probability to achieve exactly 4.5 points: 0.125036873973676896, ~1/7
Probability to achieve exactly 5.0 points: 0.151845563907564922, ~1/6
Probability to achieve exactly 5.5 points: 0.157871884557770254, ~1/6
Probability to achieve exactly 6.0 points: 0.140643298042669692, ~1/7
Probability to achieve exactly 6.5 points: 0.107212712730789559, ~1/9
Probability to achieve exactly 7.0 points: 0.069676701595497392, ~1/14
Probability to achieve exactly 7.5 points: 0.038362143703411972, ~1/26
Probability to achieve exactly 8.0 points: 0.017722252410169593, ~1/56
Probability to achieve exactly 8.5 points: 0.006772984812295091, ~1/147
Probability to achieve exactly 9.0 points: 0.002096714226021259, ~1/476
Probability to achieve exactly 9.5 points: 0.000508916322532888, ~1/1964
Probability to achieve exactly 10.0 points: 0.000091741588729626, ~1/10900
Probability to achieve exactly 10.5 points: 0.000011071963226969, ~1/90318
Probability to achieve exactly 11.0 points: 0.000000688627189414, ~1/1452164
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Probability to achieve >= 0.0 points: 1.000000000000000222, ~1/0
Probability to achieve >= 0.5 points: 0.999998424952066460, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.0 points: 0.999974305703741838, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 1.5 points: 0.999787574350553081, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.0 points: 0.998827598008461888, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 2.5 points: 0.995176682641960143, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 3.0 points: 0.984305574911107746, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 3.5 points: 0.958083892678079615, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 4.0 points: 0.905715740202971527, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 4.5 points: 0.817853548461545535, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 5.0 points: 0.692816674487868639, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 5.5 points: 0.540971110580303716, ~1/1
Probability to achieve >= 6.0 points: 0.383099226022533461, ~1/2
Probability to achieve >= 6.5 points: 0.242455927979863768, ~1/4
Probability to achieve >= 7.0 points: 0.135243215249074208, ~1/7
Probability to achieve >= 7.5 points: 0.065566513653576815, ~1/15
Probability to achieve >= 8.0 points: 0.027204369950164843, ~1/36
Probability to achieve >= 8.5 points: 0.009482117539995250, ~1/105
Probability to achieve >= 9.0 points: 0.002709132727700158, ~1/369
Probability to achieve >= 9.5 points: 0.000612418501678898, ~1/1632
Probability to achieve >= 10.0 points: 0.000103502179146010, ~1/9661
Probability to achieve >= 10.5 points: 0.000011760590416383, ~1/85029
Probability to achieve >= 11.0 points: 0.000000688627189414, ~1/1452164

Thanks to brabo for the ideas, the useful and critical discussions and the help to implement this tool.